ABSTRACT

In the 21st century, climate change is considered one of the greatest environmental threats to the world, and it has greater negative impacts on human society and the natural environment. All the IPCC's reports concluded that we should prepare scenarios and strategies for under the conditions of forthcoming global change. This study presents the projections of future changes under HadCM3 A2a and HadCM3 B2a SRES scenarios using the statistical downscaling model (SDSM) in the period (2020-2099) and their link to the planning of sustainable development in Libya. Results of downscaling show that the SDSM model can be well acceptable regard its performance. The result of the SDSM model showed great reliability of SDSM in ascertaining changes for the periods; (2020-2039), (2040-2059), (2060-2079) and (2080-2099), relative to 1961–1990. Trend analysis in Libya showed an increase in average annual and monthly temperature, compared to the baseline period for both HadCM3A2a and HadCM3B2a scenarios in both the dry and wet seasons. Thus, there is likely to be a significant warming in local surface temperature, which is enough for a significant change on the energy balance and is likely to affect water availability. The SDSM is well to help decision-makers understand the expectations of the change in extreme temperatures in the future and its environmental and economic impacts and social in Libya.

Keywords: Statistical downscaling model, SDSM, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC, General circulation model, GCM, HadCM3 Hadley Climate Model version, Temperature, Libya.

АННОТАЦИЯ:

Through the last three decades, the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) has been widely used for vegetation mapping and monitoring land-cover change in semi-arid regions. In Libya semi-arid lands occupy many parts in the north part of country that is near the Mediterranean Sea. The aim of paper is to use remote sensing technique (NDVI) for monitoring vegetation degradation in Al-Jabal Al-Akhdar region in Libya. The Pathfinder AVHRR Land (PAL), SPOT Apparent green cover percentage data and MODIS Vegetation index are used to monitor the vegetation cover change in the study area. The paper explain the possibility of use only long term NOAA-AVHRR NDVI time-series data, without need to any precipitation data, for assessing desertification conditions in Al-Jabal Al-Akhdar region. According to annual rainfall the northern parts of the area receives the greatest amount of rainfall towards the Mediterranean Sea, which occurs between October and May, it agreed well with the spatial pattern of NDVI within monthly averaged of vegetation that start increasing rapidly and reached a greater amount during spring (March-May), and decreased during June to September...